2026 Texas Housing Market Forecast: Mortgage Rates, Home Prices, and What Buyers Need to Know
- Jennifer No
- 3 days ago
- 2 min read
If you’re thinking about buying a home or refinancing in Texas in 2026, the biggest question is simple: Is now the right time—or should I wait?
According to the January 2026 Housing Forecast from Fannie Mae, the Texas housing market is entering a more stable—but still competitive—phase, with mortgage rates leveling out, home prices continuing to rise, and buyer demand increasing statewide
Let’s break down what this means specifically for Texas homebuyers, sellers, and homeowners.
Mortgage Rates in Texas: What to Expect in 2026
Fannie Mae forecasts the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to average around 6.0% throughout 2026, down from the mid-6% range in 2025
What This Means for Texas Buyers
Rates are not expected to drop dramatically
Volatility should decrease, making it easier to plan
Buyers waiting for 4–5% rates may wait years
Texas Home Sales Are Rising Again
Total U.S. home sales are projected to increase nearly 7% year over year in 2026, and Texas—one of the fastest-growing housing markets—tends to outperform the national average .
Existing Home Sales in Texas
Existing home sales are projected to grow over 7%
More homeowners are listing as rate stability improves
Buyer confidence is returning across Texas metros
New Construction in Texas
While Texas continues to lead the nation in new construction, single-family housing starts remain below long-term demand, keeping inventory tight
Texas Housing Inventory: Still Tight, Still Competitive
Single-family housing starts are forecast to hover around 900,000 units nationally, which means Texas inventory will remain constrained, especially in high-growth areas like Houston suburbs, DFW, and Central Texas
Why Inventory Matters
Less supply = stronger pricing
Well-priced homes still receive multiple offers
Buyers need solid pre-approval to compete
Home Prices in Texas: No Crash in Sight
Fannie Mae projects home price appreciation of approximately 2.4% in 2026 -
This is slower than recent years—but still positive.
What This Means for Buyers Waiting
Prices are still rising
Waiting for a “market crash” may mean paying more later
Equity growth continues for Texas homeowners
Refinancing in Texas: Activity Is Increasing
Refinance volume is expected to rise sharply in 2026, increasing from $560 billion in 2025 to over $900 billion nationwide
Many Texas homeowners who purchased at higher rates are:
Monitoring rate improvements
Planning strategic refinances
Using home equity for renovations or debt consolidation
The Bottom Line for Texas Homebuyers & Homeowners
The 2026 Texas housing market is shaping up to reward prepared buyers, not hesitant ones.
✔ Mortgage rates are stabilizing✔ Home prices are still increasing✔ Buyer demand is returning✔ Inventory remains limited
The most successful buyers in Texas won’t be the ones who time the market perfectly—they’ll be the ones who understand their financing options and move with confidence.
If you’re considering buying, selling, or refinancing in Texas in 2026, the smartest step is to talk with a local Texas mortgage professional early—before competition heats up.
Popular Loans I Offer: Conventional | FHA | VA | Jumbo | Refinancing
Jennifer No
RMLO
C&T Mortgage, Inc
16718 House Hahl Rd Ste H
Cypress, TX 77433
832-220-1480 (office)
936-525-7225 (cell)
Company NMLS: 1231852
Individual NMLS: 1310829
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